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23 Apr 2025
Uzbekistan: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission
The economy has continued to perform strongly. Real GDP growth was robust at 6.5 percent in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand. The external current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to 5.0 percent in 2024 on the back of strong remittances, high commodity prices, rapidly growing non-gold exports, and the winding down of a one-off increase in imports in 2023. International reserves remain ample. The consolidated government deficit (CGD) fell by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent in 2024, largely reflecting a reduction in energy subsidies and better-targeted social expenditure, with higher gold prices mitigating lower VAT revenues from high VAT refunds. However, the reduction in domestic demand from the smaller deficit was dampened by higher spending in the broader public sector, including from SOEs, facilitated by an increase in the external borrowing ceiling. Inflation remains elevated, with a headline reading of 10.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in March 2025, reflecting last year’s needed increases in energy tariffs and other administered prices, as well as spillovers into other prices.
